Time series analysis of heat demand

Abstract

The paper deals with an analysis of time series of heat demand course. The course of heat demand and heat consumption can be demonstrated by means of heat demand diagrams. The most important one is the Daily Diagram of Heat Supply (DDHS) which demonstrates the course of requisite heat output during the day. This analysis is utilized for building up a prediction model of the DDHS. Forecast of this heat demand course is significant for short-term and long-term planning of heat production. This forecast is very important for technical and economic considerations. The solved prediction is especially determined for the qualitative-quantitative method of hot-water piping heat output control, i.e. the Balate System which enables to eliminate any transport delay. Its importance is increased especially for controlled systems having great time constants and great transport delay. In this paper we have focused on determination of difference order, autoregressive process order and moving average process order.