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Short- and medium-term car registration forecasting based on selected macro and socio-economic indicators in European countries

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dc.title Short- and medium-term car registration forecasting based on selected macro and socio-economic indicators in European countries en
dc.contributor.author Homolka, Lubor
dc.contributor.author Ngo, Minh Vu
dc.contributor.author Pavelková, Drahomíra
dc.contributor.author Le, Tuan Bach
dc.contributor.author Dehning, Bruce
dc.relation.ispartof Research in Transportation Economics
dc.identifier.issn 0739-8859 Scopus Sources, Sherpa/RoMEO, JCR
dc.date.issued 2019
utb.relation.volume 80
dc.type article
dc.language.iso en
dc.publisher JAI Press
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.retrec.2019.100752
dc.relation.uri https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885919302641
dc.subject Car registrations en
dc.subject Seasonality en
dc.subject Forecasting en
dc.subject Macroeconomic indicators en
dc.subject Socio-economic indicators en
dc.subject Vector autoregression en
dc.subject Granger causality en
dc.description.abstract The automotive industry plays a key role in the European economy. In this paper, we determine which macro and socio-economic indicators have significant predictive power on car registrations - a proxy to automotive sector performance - across European countries. Contrary to the current literature which mainly focuses on long-term forecasting, we built our models on the highly seasonal monthly data of a medium-term period to make short-term forecasts. Our approach utilises predictors identified by the literature review. Presented models are built on the Vector Autoregressive models and are accompanied by formal tests, such as the Granger causality test. We have found mixed evidence about the importance of selected predictors as no general patterns were identified. We have found that the most useful predictor is the total number of registrations from the strongest export partner and past registration figures in the analysed country. Car registrations are virtually inelastic to the change of public transportation costs, fuel prices and short-term interest rates offered to households in most of the analysed countries. We have received mixed results about household sentiment across countries. Countries with a higher level of GDP are more sensitive to the changes in unemployment. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd en
utb.faculty Faculty of Management and Economics
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10563/1009243
utb.identifier.obdid 43880799
utb.identifier.scopus 2-s2.0-85073025956
utb.identifier.wok 000531036900002
utb.source j-scopus
dc.date.accessioned 2019-11-20T10:30:32Z
dc.date.available 2019-11-20T10:30:32Z
dc.description.sponsorship Czech Science FoundationGrant Agency of the Czech Republic [16-25536S]
utb.contributor.internalauthor Homolka, Lubor
utb.contributor.internalauthor Ngo, Minh Vu
utb.contributor.internalauthor Pavelková, Drahomíra
utb.contributor.internalauthor Le, Tuan Bach
utb.fulltext.affiliation Lubor Homolka a*, Vu Minh Ngo a, Drahomíra Pavelková a, Bach Tuan Le a, Bruce Dehning b a Tomas Bata University in Zlín, Faculty of Management and Economics, Nám. TGM 5555, 760 01, Zlín, Czech Republic b Chapman University, Argyros School of Business and Economics, One University Drive, Orange, CA, 92866, USA * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: homolka@utb.cz (L. Homolka), ngo@utb.cz (V.M. Ngo), pavelkova@utb.cz (D. Pavelkova), tuan@utb.cz (B.T. Le), bdehning@chapman.edu (B. Dehning).
utb.fulltext.dates Received 6 March 2019 Received in revised form 21 July 2019 Accepted 19 September 2019
utb.fulltext.sponsorship The authors are thankful for the financial support received from the Czech Science Foundation, Grant No. 16-25536S: Methodology of Developing a Predictive Model of Sector and Company Performance in the Macroeconomic Context.
utb.wos.affiliation [Homolka, Lubor; Vu Minh Ngo; Pavelkova, Drahomira; Bach Tuan Le] Tomas Bata Univ Zlin, Fac Management & Econ, Nam TGM 5555, Zlin 76001, Czech Republic; [Dehning, Bruce] Chapman Univ, Argyros Sch Business & Econ, One Univ Dr, Orange, CA 92866 USA
utb.scopus.affiliation Tomas Bata University in Zlín, Faculty of Management and Economics, Nám. TGM 5555, Zlín, 760 01, Czech Republic; Chapman University, Argyros School of Business and Economics, One University Drive, Orange, CA 92866, United States
utb.fulltext.projects 16-25536S
utb.fulltext.faculty Faculty of Management and Economics
utb.fulltext.faculty Faculty of Management and Economics
utb.fulltext.faculty Faculty of Management and Economics
utb.fulltext.faculty Faculty of Management and Economics
utb.identifier.jel L62
utb.identifier.jel F44
utb.identifier.jel E32
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