Evaluation of heat demand forecast for specific localities

Abstract

The paper analyzes the results of heat demand forecast for specific localities. This forecast is most important for technical and economic consideration. In this paper we use the forecast model of heat demand based on the Box-Jenkins methodology. The model is based on the assumption that the course of heat demand can be described sufficiently well as a function of the outdoor temperature and the weather independent component (social components). This model is used for prediction of heat demand in different localities. Evaluation of results of prediction model with inclusion of outdoor temperature in specific localities and conclusions are presented.