Forecast of heat demand according the Box-Jenkins methodology for specific locality

Abstract

In order to improve the control level of district-heating systems, it is necessary for the energy companies to have reliable optimization routines, implemented in their organizations. However, before a plan of heat production, a prediction of the heat demand first needs to be determined. Forecast of this heat demand course is significant for shortterm and long-term planning of heat production. This forecast is most important for technical and economic consideration. In this paper we propose the forecast model of heat demand based on the Box-Jenkins methodology. The model is based on the assumption that the course of DDHD can be described sufficiently well as a function of the outdoor temperature and the weather independent component (social components). Time of the day affects the social components. The time dependence of the load reflects the existence of a daily heat demand pattern, which may vary for different week days and seasons. Forecast of social component is realized by means of Box-Jenkins methodology. This model is used for prediction of heat demand in different locality. The results of heat demand prediction in specific locality and conclusions are presented.