Prediction of potential occurrence of historical objects with defensive function in Slovakia using machine learning approach

Abstract

In this article, we aim at the prediction of possible locations of already defunct historical objects with a defensive function (HODFs) in Slovakia, which have not been found and documented so far, using three machine learning methods. Specifically, we used the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, which were trained based on the following five factors influencing the possible occurrence of HODFs: elevation, distance from a river, distance from a settlement, lithological rock type, and type of representative geoecosystems. Training and testing datasets were based on a database of already documented 605 HODFs, which were divided into 70% of training samples and 30% of testing samples. All of the three models reached the AUC-ROC value over 0.74 based on the testing dataset. The best performance was recorded by the random forest predictive model with the AUC-ROC value equal to 0.79. The results of the random forest model were also validated with the recently documented HODFs via the archeological research.