Utilization of Mathematica environment for designing the forecast model of heat demand

Abstract

Time series analysis and subsequent forecasting can be an important part of a process control system. By monitoring key process variables and using them to predict the future behavior of the process, it may be possible to determine the optimal time and extent of control action. We can find applications of this prediction also in the control of the Centralized Heat Supply System (CHSS), especially for the control of hot water piping heat output. Knowledge of heat demand is the base for input data for the operation preparation of CHSS. The course of heat demand can be demonstrated by means of the Daily Diagram of Heat Supply (DDHS) which demonstrates the course of requisite heat output during the day. This diagram is of essential importance for technical and economic considerations. The aim of paper is to give some background about analysis of time series of heat demand and identification of forecast model using Time series package which is integrated with the Wolfram Mathematica environment. The paper illustrates using this environment for designing the forecast model of heat demand in specific locality.