The physics of citation growth

Abstract

Purpose: This study investigates the physics of annual fractional citation growth and its impact on journal bibliographic metrics, focusing on the interplay between journal publication growth and citation dynamics. Design/methodology/approach: We analyze bibliometric data from three prominent fluids journals—Physics of Fluids, Journal of Fluid Mechanics, and Physical Review Fluids—over the period 1999–2023. The analysis examines the relations among annual fractional journal publication growth, citation growth, and bibliographic metric suppressions. Findings: Our findings reveal that the suppression of impact factor growth is significantly influenced by annual fractional journal publication growth rather than citation growth. All three journals exhibit similar responses to publication growth with minimal scatter, following a consistent functional relation. We also identify narrow, nearly Gaussian distributions for annual fractional journal publication growth. Furthermore, we introduce a new growth-independent dimensionless bibliometric metric, journal urgency, the ratio of annual fractional citation growth to the 4-year running average immediacy index. This metric captures effectively the dependency of citation growth on urgency and reveals consistent distributions across the journals analyzed. Research limitations: The study is limited to three major fluids journals and to the availability of bibliometric data from 1999 to 2023. Future work could extend the analysis to other disciplines and journals. Practical implications: Understanding the relation between publication growth and bibliometric suppressions can inform editorial and strategic decisions in journal management. The proposed journal urgency metric offers a novel tool for assessing and comparing journal performance independent of growth rates. Originality/value: This study introduces a new bibliometric metric—journal urgency—that provides fresh insights into citation dynamics and bibliographic metric behavior. It highlights the critical role of publication growth in shaping journal impact factors and CiteScores, offering a unified framework applicable across multiple journals.